Making climate forecasts matter /
| Institution som forfatter: | |
|---|---|
| Andre forfattere: | , |
| Format: | Licensed eBooks |
| Sprog: | engelsk |
| Udgivet: |
Washington, D.C. :
National Academy Press,
©1999.
|
| Online adgang: | https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&scope=site&db=nlebk&AN=8726 |
Indholdsfortegnelse:
- Making Climate Forecasts Matter
- Copyright
- Contents
- Preface
- MAKING CLIMATE FORECASTS MATTER
- Summary
- POTENTIAL BENEFITS OF CLIMATE FORECAST INFORMATION
- DISSEMINATION OF CLIMATE FORECAST INFORMATION
- CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATIC VARIATIONS AND OF CLIMATE FORECASTS
- 1 Climate Variability, Climate Forecasting, and Society
- CLIMATE VARIATION AND SOCIETY
- Use of Climate Knowledge to Improve Well-Being
- When Climate Becomes Hazardous
- Climate Sensitivity and Vulnerability
- The Potential Usefulness of Climate Forecasts
- STRUCTURE OF THIS BOOK
- 2 Climate Forecasting and Its Uses
- WEATHER AND CLIMATE
- HOW SEASONAL-TO-INTERANNUAL CLIMATE FORECASTS ARE MADE
- The Weather Forecasting Paradigm
- What Is Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Forecasting?
- Why Is Climate Predictable?
- How Have Climate Forecasts Been Made Previously?
- How Are the Forecasts Made by Numerical Models?
- Which Quantities Are Forecast?
- How Are the Forecasts Evaluated?
- How Good Are the Forecasts?
- Problems and Prospects for Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Prediction
- TOWARD USABLE KNOWLEDGE
- From Tropical Pacific SST to Other Quantities
- Uses of ENSO Nowcasts
- Specific ENSO Forecast Needs-Time and Space Resolution
- Using ENSO Forecasts
- Possible New Directions in Climate Forecasting
- Non-ENSO Bases for Seasonal-to-Interannual Forecasts
- The Potential to Develop Leading Climate Indicators
- Processes for Identifying Usable Knowledge
- FINDINGS
- 3 Coping with Seasonal-to-Interannual Climatic Variation
- COPING IN WEATHER-SENSITIVE SECTORS
- Agriculture
- Fishery Management
- Forests and Other Ecosystems
- Water Supply and Flood Management
- Human Health
- Other Weather-Sensitive Sectors
- INSTITUTIONS FOR COPING WITH CLIMATE VARIABILITY
- Disaster Insurance and Reinsurance
- Emergency Preparedness and Response.
- Market Mechanisms
- FINDINGS
- 4 Making Climate Forecast Information More Useful
- USEFUL INFORMATION THAT CLIMATE FORECASTS MIGHT PROVIDE
- RESPONSES TO PAST CLIMATE PREDICTIONS
- Drought Forecasts in the Yakima Valley
- ENSO-based Forecasts in Northeast Brazil, 1991-1992 and 1996
- The Credibility of Famine Early Warning Systems
- INDIRECT SOURCES OF INSIGHT INTO RESPONSES TO CLIMATE FORECASTS
- Beliefs About Weather and Climate
- Human Information Processing and Climate Information
- Organizational Responses to New Information
- Insights from Analogous Types of Information Transmission
- General Principles for Designing Information Programs
- Alternative Models for Designing Information Programs
- FINDINGS
- 5 Measuring the Consequences of Climate Variability and Forecasts
- ESTIMATING THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE VARIATIONS
- A Conceptual Model of the Effects of Climate Variability
- Current Scientific Capability
- Estimating Biophysical Impacts That Constrain Human Systems
- Research Based on Observations of Decision Making
- Simulations of Decision Making
- Challenges in Estimating the Impacts of Climate Variability
- ESTIMATING THE VALUE OF CLIMATE FORECASTS
- What Kinds of Benefit Can Climate Forecasts Provide?
- A Conceptual Approach to Estimating the Value of Forecasts
- Current Scientific Capability in Valuing Climate Forecasts
- Research Based on the Use of Actual Climate Forecasts
- Simulations of Climate Forecast Value
- Challenges in Estimating the Value of Forecasts
- FINDINGS
- 6 Scientific Priorities
- FINDINGS
- Climate Forecasting and Its Uses
- Coping with Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Variation
- The Potential of Climate Forecasts
- Measuring the Consequences of Climate Variability and Forecasts
- General
- SCIENTIFIC QUESTIONS
- Potential Benefits of Climate Forecast Information.
- Improved Dissemination of Forecast Information
- Consequences of Climatic Variability and of Forecasts
- The Value of Studying Past Climate Fluctuations and Forecasts
- References
- About the Authors
- Index.